Exchange Rate Calculator Nzd To Aud – FX Forecast Update(ing): GBP, EUR, USD, CAD, AUD, NZD, SK, JPY Posted by Dave Taylor in Forex Forecasts, Institutional FX Forecasts – September 5, 2023 12:35 pm
Currency analysts at ING Bank have provided a currency exchange rate forecast that outlines potential movements in several global currencies in relation to the global economic environment. ING Bank’s analysis focuses on the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar (EUR/USD), and despite acknowledging economic challenges in the eurozone, they forecast that the European Central Bank (ECB) will only begin to adjust its policy . Summer of 2024. On the other hand, they estimate that the Federal Reserve (FED) will implement significant rate cuts from the first quarter of 2024 due to underestimating the downside risks facing the US economy. “Our economics team believes markets are underestimating the downside risks facing the US economy and that the Fed will need to make a significant rate cut from the first quarter of 2024,” said Chris Turner, global market head and regional head. Will happen.” Research at ING Bank, UK and CEE. The strategist predicts a change in the two-year EUR/USD real rate differential, potentially reaching zero by the end of 2024. This could see EUR/USD comfortably above 1.15. The forecast also highlights the possibility of a widespread decline in the US dollar (USD), which would particularly impact currencies that would be most affected during a period of Federal Reserve tightening. In Scandinavia, the Swedish krona (SEK) faces domestic challenges which could mean a more turbulent recovery than the Norwegian currency. “We expect Scandinavian currencies to recover from next quarter, although the weak domestic outlook for the Swedish krona means the path should be rougher than for the Norwegian currency,” says Turner. Furthermore, both the Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) appear to be dependent on Chinese sentiment before a significant correction occurs. The strategist says: “The Australian and New Zealand dollars should wait for China sentiment to lift slightly before unlocking ‘recovery mode’.” According to analysts, the trajectory of the pound sterling (GBP) is closely linked to market expectations regarding the Bank of England’s monetary decisions, which ING Bank believes may be too accommodative. Another major pair, the US dollar-yen exchange rate (USD/JPY), is seen as a reflection of market sentiment on US yields. USD/JPY, being overbought, may be headed for a decline, which could materialize towards the end of the year, especially with the Bank of Japan’s continued tapering bias. “In terms of emerging market currencies, monetary stimulus will keep the renminbi soft and Asian currencies will lag any recovery against the dollar later this year,” says Turner. The strategist says some emerging market currencies, particularly in the CEE and LATAM region, such as Hungary and Brazil, are in better shape. This is due to their extremely positive real rates, even though they have started their easing cycle this year.
Exchange Rate Calculator Nzd To Aud
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Chart Art: Range Resistance Levels For Nzd/usd And Aud/cad
According to investment bank SocGen, the dollar (USD) will maintain its market dominance in the short-term outlook and the euro (EUR) is moving towards parity against the US currency. Long term…
GBP/USD: Sterling outlook is weak as UK headlines are weaker than expected due to the BOE’s timing of a rate hike, while wages data remains a concern for the Bank of England…
GBP/USD: Downside risks dominate as investment banks cut BoE rate forecasts. Wells Fargo’s currency strategist is warning investors about the risk of the pound (USD) rising to 1.20 or… Before we go any further, ICYMI, EUR/AUD is on the watch list ahead of tomorrow’s RBA decision Trendline pullback noted. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good show!
UK BRC retail sales rose 1.8% year-on-year in August to 4.3%, beating the consensus of 2.2% growth, reflecting strong growth in spending.
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Japanese household spending fell another 5.0% year-on-year in August, down from a 2.4% decline of 4.2% earlier.
Commodity prices in New Zealand fell 2.9% per cubic meter in August, following a 2.6% decline earlier, due to lower dairy and lamb prices.
China’s Caixin service PMI fell to 51.8 from an estimated 53.6 in August from 54.1 in July, marking the slowest pace of growth in eight months.
The RBA kept interest rates at 4.10%, saying “further tightening may be needed” but inflation has already peaked and uncertainties are weighing on the outlook.
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Chinese developer Country Garden Holdings managed to avoid default by paying $22.5 million in coupons, but is still seeking to extend payments on seven more onshore bonds by three years.
The Aussie and Kiwi pairs were once again the big movers of the day, driven by a series of risk flows and a relatively cautious RBA announcement.
Updates from China took center stage at the start of the Asian session, as news of entrepreneur Country Garden Holdings’ escape from default hit the airwaves. This was followed by an adverse PMI issued to Caixin Services, prompting a flight to safety.
Shortly afterwards, the RBA announced its decision to keep rates unchanged and maintain its forward guidance, as expected. Still, the reaction was generally bearish as market players likely took note of the latest decline in China.
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Unlike most AUD pairs, which have already made a bullish breakout today, AUD/NZD is still stuck within its short-term range and is currently testing support.
Candlesticks closing below the floor at S1 (1.0840) may be enough to confirm that a drop to the same height as the rectangle may follow. This could lead the pair to the next downside resistance at S2 (1.0820) or even S3 (1.0800).
On the other hand, if the support holds, AUD/NZD could turn towards the resistance range near R1 (1.0890) and the key psychological level of 1.0900.
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Australia’s upcoming GDP release could determine whether the pair bounces or breaks, as an unfavorable outcome could highlight the below-trend domestic growth outlined by RBA policymakers today.
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They cannot change the direction of the wind, but they can adjust the sails to always reach their destination. Jimmy Dean had three brothers – Big, Middle and Young… In fact, CAD, AUD and NZD – the members of this trio – are definitely family ties as you probably know. However, it is not just the word “dollar” in their titles that unites them, they are all known as commodity currencies. Let’s see what’s next for the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.
To begin with, we can examine the currency pairs of interest, namely USD/CAD, USD/AUD and USD/NZD, through charts showing their movements since the beginning of 2023. It is worth noting that many of these fluctuations can be predicted using special tools for traders and investors. Following the economic calendar, which highlights major and minor global economic events, is one such tool.
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By looking at the charts, we can identify common patterns in the movement of these currency pairs. However, there are some differences in the results – for example, a difference of about 5% between NZD and CAD. In any case, we need more comparisons. So, let’s include the US Dollar Index on a chart that shows the performance of the USD against other major currencies.
Based on this information, we can see that the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have outperformed the US dollar and most major currencies, while the Canadian dollar is slightly behind (however, the difference is not huge).
But why are CAD, AUD and NZD referred to as commodity currencies and how does this designation affect their exchange rates? Well, these three currencies are affected by export volumes. For example, Canada’s economy is closely linked to the export of various goods to the US due to their shared border. Important trade routes for Australia are China, India and Japan, while New Zealand is primarily dependent on trade with Australia and China.
Commodity prices also play an important role. Rising prices have a positive impact on commodity currencies, while falling prices have a negative impact. There is a direct connection. But first, you should research which items are the major exports for each country. For example, Canada is dependent on oil and oil products, Australia on oil, other energy sources, and agricultural products, and New Zealand on dairy and meat products.
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Additionally, monetary policy and key interest rates set by local central banks participate in the formation of currency exchange rates. If the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates while the Reserve Bank of Australia raises them, the AUD will obviously rise against the USD. This principle applies universally.
But what now? It appears that neither the Fed nor the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand central banks will take any significant steps
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